Where is Drew Brees?

This week the New Orleans Saints improved their 2009 record to 11-0. They are stıll very far from a Super Bowl Championship, but I am enormously proud of their accomplishments this season. I am particularly impressed by the Saints’ quarterback, Drew Brees. When Drew Brees joined the Saints franchise in 2006, he led the team to its greatest heights in 40 years—the NFC Championship game. Last year he became only the second quarterback in NFL history to pass for more than 5000 yards in a single season. And this year he leads the NFL in touchdown passes and quarterback rating.

This is why I was offended several weeks ago when former NFL coach Jimmy Johnson compared Drew Brees and Eli Manning. When asked if he would rather have Drew Brees or Eli Manning as the quarterback for his football team, Coach Johnson explained that Drew Brees could play good football no matter who his teammates were. However, on a team with a strong supporting cast, Eli Manning could accomplish more because of his superior talent. Eli Manning is an average quarterback blessed with a great defense and a bruising power running game. He occasionally excels when the game is on the line (as he did in Super Bowl XLIII), but he is ultimately a game manager. To analyze whether Drew Brees was an elite quarterback or an equal to Eli Manning, I compared the statistics of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton and Eli Manning over the last four years.

Diving into the numbers, over the last four years Drew Brees has thrown for more passing yards (17,027) than his three competitors. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are both relatively close (16,394 and 15,731 yards, respectively), while Eli Manning falls far behind with only 12,502 passing yards.

Likewise, Brees has thrown 115 touchdowns over the last four seasons. Peyton Manning has thrown 113, and Tom Brady leads the way with 120. Eli Manning has thrown only 86 touchdowns over the same time span.

Drew Brees and Eli Manning are closer in interceptions. Drew Brees has thrown 55 in the last four years, while Eli Manning has thrown 58. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are considerably better, with only 46 and 42 interceptions, respectively.

Finally, Drew Brees’ quarterback rating over the last four years is 98.5. Tom Brady boasts the same 98.5 rating, while Peyton Manning’s is slightly higher at 99.3. Eli Manning’s rating is a drastically lower 81.5.

So why was Drew Brees compared to Eli Manning? One obvious explanation is that these three quarterbacks all have Super Bowl rings, whereas Brees has only reached the Conference championship game once—and he lost.

I also wondered if perhaps Brees had been under-performing in games that should have showcased his talent, so I looked at each quarterback's statistics in nationally televised football games. In such games, Peyton Manning averages 275 yards, 2 touchdowns, and less than one interception per game, equaling a quarterback rating of 97. In these contests he also has a winning percentage of 64.7%. Tom Brady has similarly done very well in such games, averaging 253 yards, 1.79 touchdowns, and only .82 interceptions per game for a total quarterback rating of 92.8. While his stats are slightly less impressive than Manning’s, his winning percentage is an astounding 75.8%. Importantly, Drew Brees has played less well in nationally televised games, averaging 273 yards, 1.64 touchdowns, and a marginally higher 1.21 interceptions per game. His quarterback rating compares decently, at 90.2, but his winning percentage is only 40%.

Drew Brees’ passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating all suggest that he is an elite football player. It certainly admonishes him of unfavorable comparisons to Eli Manning. However, Drew Brees’ numbers have not translated to reputation because he has never had enough talent around him to make a successful Super Bowl run. For related reasons, he does not have any MVP trophies. And in games where the whole country can see his ability, he has not always delivered.

Last Monday night, I woke up at 3a.m. in Istanbul, Turkey so I could watch the Saints on Monday Night Football as they defeated Tom Brady and the Patriots 38-17. Brees threw for five touchdowns and had a perfect quarterback rating 158.3. I believe the success of the Saints organization and Brees’ performance on national television are finally bringing him due recognition. If this year he should win a Super Bowl trophy—inşallah—I hope he will join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning atop the league, en route to what might be a Hall of Fame career.