Last week I predicted three of the four games correctly, which means I'm one pick better than random chance. The only game I got wrong was choosing against Kurt Warner’s playoff experience and the Arizona Cardinals. The four games last week proved two patterns of the playoffs. Each of the victorious teams was at least +2 in turnovers, and all of the winners successfully attacked the opposing quarterback.
This week is much more difficult to call because of the level of the competition; the four wild-card teams have momentum, and the four teams that received a first-round bye are weeks removed from any dominant play.
Saturday’s first game features my beloved New Orleans Saints hosting the Arizona Cardinals. If the Saints lose this weekend, I might have to start betting on the Cubs as a more promising investment. The Saints have lost their last three games, including to the bottom-feeding Tampa Bay Buccaneers, wherein Cadillac Williams down-right emasculated the Saints defense with nine straight runs to win in overtime. The Saints haven’t looked like a team worthy of the top seed in the NFC since a November 30 victory over the New England Patriots. By kickoff on Saturday that game will be 48 days old. That’s right, the Saints have been wandering in the desert longer than Jesus did. It doesn’t help that they’re staring at two offensive assassins with playoff credentials in Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner.
Even so, I am picking the New Orleans Saints to win this game. This may be blind loyalty, but I’ll try to back it up. In the regular season, the Saints had the second-best turnover ratio in the NFL, a stronger rushing game than the Cardinals, and a better percentage on third-down conversions. The Cardinals have the advantage in every defensive category, but they also played six games in the NFC West. I pick the Saints because of the bye-week. The extra week has helped defensive backs Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper get healthy, and it’s given Sean Payton more preparation time, which almost always benefits the defense—see every Super Bowl in history. This looks to be a high-scoring game, and I think the Saints can come out on top.
The following game has the Baltimore Ravens facing MVP Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. Like the Saints, the Colts starters haven’t played a full game of good football in a month, thanks to Coach Caldwell's controversial choice not to chase the perfect season. The Ravens are old school--better at creating turnovers and running the football. Plus they lead the Colts in every defensive category except pressuring the quarterback.
That said, I’m picking the Colts for two reasons. First, no one has beaten Peyton Manning this season, a statement made possible by seven fourth-quarter comebacks this year. Second, I don’t believe the Ravens can stop the Colts from grabbing a lead, and if that happens, the Ravens’ Joe Flacco will have to make important plays. With Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on his tails, I think he doesn’t make enough of them, and the Colts go to compete for the AFC Championship.
The away team that most people are predicting to win this weekend is the red-hot Dallas Cowboys, who play Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. Both of these teams are led by talented quarterbacks who are capable of greatness, but occasionally deliver duds. Both have young receiving corps, but the Cowboys’ receivers have a little more experience and an added weapon with Jason Witten. The Vikings have all-star power at running back with Adrian Peterson, but the Cowboys produce more yardage with more efficiency by splitting carries between Marion Barber and Felix Jones. Both defenses are led by an intimidating pass rush, although the Cowboys have more weapons and schemes—the Vikings just unleash Jared Allen. With the two teams so close, it makes sense that most people are choosing the Cowboys’ superior personnel and momentum, but I’m picking the Vikings. I believe Brett Favre is good for at least one great playoff performance this season, and I simply don’t trust Romo in the playoffs.
Finally, The Jets travel to meet the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have won eleven straight with Philip River’s deep ball, and they have the advantage in almost every offensive category, except for rushing the ball, in which the Jets double their output. The Jets have the NFL’s No. 1 defense, with which they should be able to stop LaDainian Tomlinson, a shadow of his former self. However, the Jets have to cross the country to play in San Diego. Also, Mark Sanchez will probably have to play a larger role than he did last week, when Carson Palmer missed receivers all over the field. I don’t think the rookie quarterback can pull it off, so I pick the Chargers to win.
These four games almost all pit talented football teams against teams built for postseason success. The Vikings, Chargers, Colts, and Saints have all reached lofty status with exceptional quarterback play and sufficient—but not exceptional—defenses. By contrast, the Jets and Ravens are built to build a lead with turnovers and field position, and run out the clock with a committee of running backs. I know I’m playing a dangerous game, I’ll go with the talent and the power of home-field advantage. So be it.
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