This week the NFL playoffs begin, and for the first time since self-awareness, I won’t be watching them live in the United States. If I’m lucky I’ll be able to web stream them in Istanbul in the very early hours of the morning. Otherwise—as is my routine—I will watch the little graphic football plod its way down the field of NFL.com’s game-tracking device.
It’s particularly difficult for me to guess how each team will perform in the playoffs—including my beloved and recently woeful New Orleans Saints—because I haven’t seen most of the teams perform this year. Over the last four months, I’ve made direct contact with a live broadcast as few as six times. As such, I am analyzing the playoffs with an extremely heavy reliance on statistics and intuition. Nevertheless, I will venture my rationale and cautious predictions heretofore.
This weekend is the wildcard round of the playoffs, which—thanks to the competitiveness of the NFL—is extremely significant. Four of the last eight teams to play in a Super Bowl played in the Wildcard round. Often teams leave this stage with strong momentum and effectively surprise the first and second seed teams that sometimes haven’t played a meaningful game in weeks.
This particular week is also interesting because three of the four games are repeats of matches played only a week ago, all of which produced lopsided victories.
Saturday afternoon the New York Jets will travel to Cincinnati for a rematch against the Bengals. Last week the Jets tarnished the Bengals 37-0. Looking at the statistics, the Jets boast a superior turnover ratio, a slightly more prolific offense—including the NFL’s leading rushing attack, and the most restrictive defense in the league. The Bengals have important star-power in former pro-bowlers Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco, while the Jets will try to win a playoff game led by rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. While I have doubts about a rookie in the playoffs, I think the young gun will be enough for a repeat of their victory over the Bengals.
Saturday evening features another rematch, this one between the division rival Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Last week in Dallas the Cowboys won a shut-out 24-0. Commentators remarked that McNabb and Co. looked out of sync and tired. McNabb has been criticized for not giving it his all many times in his career (see Super Bowl XXXIX). But he often responds to criticism with strong performances. The Eagles and Cowboys are well-matched statistically. The Cowboys have a stronger offense in every category, but the Eagles defense is better at limiting opposing quarterbacks either by sacking them in the backfield or forcing them to throw toward Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. I’ll take the Cowboys, primarily because they seem to have the momentum, but I’m skeptical of Tony Romo in the playoffs, and I worry about discounting a Donovan McNabb playing with a chip on his shoulder.
The next day begins with last year’s NFC champions, the Arizona Cardinals, playing at home against the Green Bay Packers, who defeated them on Sunday 33-7. In that game Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner saw limited action, but even so the Packers displayed why some are picking them to reach the Super Bowl. Over the regular season the Packers had the best turnover ratio in the NFL, averaging 1.5 turnovers per game more than their opponents. They also have the best third-down offense and the strongest defense in the NFC. The Cardinals surprised everyone last year, and it’s impossible to ignore the talent of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin—the latter player is not 100% healthy. But I don’t think the Cardinals make the same improbable run again. I give the Packers this game, maybe en route to a Super Bowl run.
The weekend ends with the New England Patriots hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Surprisingly, the Ravens may be the most balanced team in the AFC. In the areas that many believe decide championships, the Ravens are tops. They have the best turnover ratio in the AFC, as well as the most efficient running game. Their defense gives up an AFC-best 3.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers, and only the New York Jets have a better percentage at stopping opponents on third down. The Patriots interestingly fail to lead their conference in any significant statistical category. However, in comparison to the Ravens they have a higher-scoring offense, a predictably stronger passing game and a better third down conversion percentage. Perhaps most importantly, the Patriots will be without Pro-Bowl wide receiver and first down machine Wes Welker. If anyone excels at sending substitutes for injured players it’s Patriots coach Bill Belichick, but there’s no replacement for Welker in what quarterback Tom Brady calls a “Wes Welker-oriented offense.” As such I’ll pick the Baltimore Ravens.
According to these predictions, the four teams moving on will be the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Baltimore Ravens. Of course, that’s assuming my predictions are correct, and I’m basically flying blind.
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